Election Prediction ‘07!
I might do a state by state commentary if I have the time. In the meantime, please enjoy my final predictions:
House of Reps:
ALP 88 (+28 seats)
Coalition 60 (-28 seats)
Independents 2 (Katter in Kennedy, Windsor in New England)
Seat gains for ALP by state (margin needed for ALP win in brackets):
New South Wales (11) - Parramatta (0.8), Wentworth (2.5), Lindsay (2.9), Eden Monaro (3.3), Bennelong (4.1), Dobell (4.8), Page (5.5), Paterson (6.3), Robertson (6.9), Cowper (6.7), Macarthur (my pick for the bolter @ 11.2)
Victoria (2) - Corangamite (5.3), La Trobe (5.8)
Queensland (6) - Bonner (0.5), Moreton (2.8), Blair (5.7), Herbert (6.2), Bowman (8.9), Ryan (my pick for the Queensland bolter @ 10.4)
South Australia (5) - Kingston (0.1), Wakefield (0.7), Makin (0.9), Boothby (5.4), Sturt (6.8)
Western Australia (1) - Hasluck (1.5)
Tasmania (2) - Braddon (1.1), Bass (2.6)
Northern Territory (1) - Solomon (2.8)
Random House of Reps musings:
Seat that swings most to the ALP - the seat of Adelaide, currently held by the ALP with a margin of 1.3%. With the inner city seats around Australia reportedly swinging hard against the Coalition and South Australia allegedly embracing the Ruddslide, I’m expecting this seat to be ridiculously safe after the election. Say 15%.
Seat that swings most to the Coalition - the seat of Brand (WA), currently held by the ALP with a margin of 4.7%. The word is that this seat is swinging to the Coalition - apparently Kim Beazley had a reasonable amount of personal vote. However, the ALP is expected to retain this seat. The demographics of this seat is interesting - it appears it should be a solid one for the Coalition (lowest quintile nationwide in terms of people in professional occupations, median family income and people of non-English speaking background and in the highest quintile for dwellings being purchased) and I would expect it to drift to the Coalition over time. I think a swing of 2-3% to the Coalition is on the cards for this election, and should be one of the very few seats that swings to the Coalition.
Senate predictions:
NSW - 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Green
Victoria - 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
Queensland - 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
South Australia - 2 ALP, 2 Liberals, 1 Xenophon, 1 Green
Western Australia - 2 ALP, 3 Liberals, 1 Green
Tasmania - 3 ALP, 2 Liberals, 1 Green
ACT - 1 ALP, 1 Green
Northern Territory - 1 ALP, 1 CLP
Total projected Senate seat count after this election:
ALP - 32
Coalition - 35
Greens - 7
Family First - 1
Xenophon - 1
Comments
Comment from Eric
Time: 20 November 2007, 10:52 pm
I think it will be 90+ for Labor with 55% TPP
Comment from JP
Time: 21 November 2007, 5:42 am
I live in Cowper, and I hope you’re right, but the ALP campaign has been pretty invisible. I know several people who are thinking of voting Labor, but who can’t name the candidate. The only ALP material to hit our letterbox hasn’t mentioned the candidate (it’s just generic anti-WorkChoices, or generic pro-Rudd stuff). Nats on the other hand have put out many glossy brochures full of locally targetted plans/achievements - full of lies and promises to do stuff they’ve spent 11 years not doing, and no mention of all the things they’ve done that stink, but if you’d just landed from another planet (and for many swinging voters that’s the amount of sophistication they’re bringing to the polling booth) you’d think only the Nats were doing anything worthwhile.
Anyway, even if Cowper doesn’t go I’m secretly hoping the libs lose at least one of Warringah, North Sydney, or Cook. No harm in having a dream!
Comment from Stilgherrian
Time: 21 November 2007, 12:36 pm
I haven’t had a chance to read this in detail yet, have you entered this into Crikey’s tipping competition?
Comment from Quatrefoil
Time: 21 November 2007, 9:39 pm
I’m really hoping you’ve got it right - I’d be really happy with this outcome, particularly if the Greens do that well in the senate.
Comment from Cassie ST
Time: 22 November 2007, 1:47 pm
Hmmmm, Before the Lindsay “Chaser Joke”.
IMO: Wentworth and Bennelong in real danger of going to Labour because of it (despite PMs solid if uninspiring Press Club appearance today), and maybe a few more close ones, just due to the “bugga you, I’ve had enough of this election crap” from the sheeple.
Trend to watch, Greens and left leaning indie primary vote share in Lower House.
And it will make for an interesting senate without the DEMS won’t it?
Comment from Stilgherrian
Time: 15 March 2008, 9:45 am
So, how did your prediction line with with the final results?
And by the way: You’re tagged!
Pingback from Stilgherrian · Snarky Election Prediction
Time: 20 November 2007, 10:48 pm
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