Snarky Platypus

I might do a state by state commentary if I have the time. In the meantime, please enjoy my final predictions:

House of Reps:

ALP 88 (+28 seats)
Coalition 60 (-28 seats)
Independents 2 (Katter in Kennedy, Windsor in New England)

Seat gains for ALP by state (margin needed for ALP win in brackets):

New South Wales (11) - Parramatta (0.8), Wentworth (2.5), Lindsay (2.9), Eden Monaro (3.3), Bennelong (4.1), Dobell (4.8), Page (5.5), Paterson (6.3), Robertson (6.9), Cowper (6.7), Macarthur (my pick for the bolter @ 11.2)

Victoria (2) - Corangamite (5.3), La Trobe (5.8)

Queensland (6) - Bonner (0.5), Moreton (2.8), Blair (5.7), Herbert (6.2), Bowman (8.9), Ryan (my pick for the Queensland bolter @ 10.4)

South Australia (5) - Kingston (0.1), Wakefield (0.7), Makin (0.9), Boothby (5.4), Sturt (6.8)

Western Australia (1) - Hasluck (1.5)

Tasmania (2) - Braddon (1.1), Bass (2.6)

Northern Territory (1) - Solomon (2.8)

Random House of Reps musings:

Seat that swings most to the ALP - the seat of Adelaide, currently held by the ALP with a margin of 1.3%. With the inner city seats around Australia reportedly swinging hard against the Coalition and South Australia allegedly embracing the Ruddslide, I’m expecting this seat to be ridiculously safe after the election. Say 15%.

Seat that swings most to the Coalition - the seat of Brand (WA), currently held by the ALP with a margin of 4.7%. The word is that this seat is swinging to the Coalition - apparently Kim Beazley had a reasonable amount of personal vote. However, the ALP is expected to retain this seat. The demographics of this seat is interesting - it appears it should be a solid one for the Coalition (lowest quintile nationwide in terms of people in professional occupations, median family income and people of non-English speaking background and in the highest quintile for dwellings being purchased) and I would expect it to drift to the Coalition over time. I think a swing of 2-3% to the Coalition is on the cards for this election, and should be one of the very few seats that swings to the Coalition.

Senate predictions:

NSW - 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Green
Victoria - 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
Queensland - 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
South Australia - 2 ALP, 2 Liberals, 1 Xenophon, 1 Green
Western Australia - 2 ALP, 3 Liberals, 1 Green
Tasmania - 3 ALP, 2 Liberals, 1 Green
ACT - 1 ALP, 1 Green
Northern Territory - 1 ALP, 1 CLP

Total projected Senate seat count after this election:

ALP - 32
Coalition - 35
Greens - 7
Family First - 1
Xenophon - 1